Ayoub-Elkhaiari/CO2-emission-forecasting-optimization-for-Morocco

# CO2 Emission Forecasting & Optimization – Morocco ## Overview This project predicts, analyzes, and optimizes CO2 emissions for Morocco using historical data, machine learning, and mathematical optimization. It includes an interactive dashboard to simulate sector-specific emission reductions and estimate their real-time impact on total CO2 emissions. The project was built on the Our World in Data – Carbon Emissions dataset (~1.4 GB), filtered down to Morocco-specific records saved as `morocco_data.csv`. --- ## Project Structure ``` ├── notebook.ipynb # Full analysis pipeline (EDA → Forecast → ML → Optimization) ├── dashboard.py # Interactive Dash app for scenario simulation ├── morocco_data.csv # Filtered dataset for Morocco (pivoted, ready to use) ├── output.png # CO2 emissions over time plot ├── output2.png # Sector-wise base vs optimized emissions plot └── data/ # Raw global dataset (~1.4 GB) — not tracked in Git ``` --- ## Dataset - **Source:** Our World in Data – Carbon Emissions - **Raw size:** ~1.4 GB (global, all countries) - **Filtered to:** Morocco only → saved as `morocco_data.csv` **Features used:** | Column | Description | |--------|-------------| | `year` | Year of observation | | `co2` | Total CO2 emissions (million tonnes) | | `coal_co2` | CO2 from coal (million tonnes) | | `oil_co2` | CO2 from oil (million tonnes) | | `gas_co2` | CO2 from gas (million tonnes) | | `gdp` | GDP in international-$ (2011 prices) | | `population` | Country population | | Primary energy consumption | Measured in terawatt-hours | --- ## Pipeline ### 1. Data Filtering & Pivoting - Loaded the global OWID dataset and filtered rows for **Morocco**. - Selected 7 relevant indicators (CO2 total, coal, oil, gas, GDP, population, energy). - Pivoted from long format → wide format (rows = years, columns = indicators). - Dropped rows with missing values and cast all columns to float. ### 2. Explorat …