BarrySaidy/Drought_Analysis_Gambia

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought Intensity and Vegetation Health in The Gambia # Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought Intensity and Vegetation Health in The Gambia ## Project Overview This project investigates long-term drought trends and their impact on vegetation health in The Gambia's most vulnerable regions (North Bank and Eastern areas) using satellite-derived data and advanced statistical methods. The analysis combines meteorological drought indicators (rainfall deficits) with agricultural drought indicators (vegetation stress) to provide a comprehensive understanding of how drought conditions are evolving across space and time. ### Problem Statement The Gambia, a small West African nation, is highly vulnerable to climate variability and drought. This study addresses critical challenges faced by farmers and policymakers: - **Increasing Climate Uncertainty**: Traditional weather prediction methods are becoming unreliable - **Lack of Quantitative Evidence**: Government agencies need scientifically rigorous data to justify climate adaptation investments - **Unknown Spatial Patterns**: Unclear which specific villages and regions are most vulnerable to drought - **Unclear Drought Relationships**: The connection between rainfall deficits and actual crop stress is poorly understood ### Why This Matters - **Food Security**: The Gambia's economy is heavily agricultural; crop failures directly threaten livelihoods - **Resource Allocation**: Limited government resources must be targeted to the most vulnerable communities - **Climate Adaptation**: International funding for adaptation programs requires evidence-based prioritization - **Policy Development**: National adaptation plans need statistically validated drought trend data --- ## Methodology ### Analytical Framework The project uses a **multi-step spatio-temporal analysis** combining remote sensing data with non-parametric statistical testing: #### **Step 1: Data Acquisition & Preprocessing** - Download 44 years of rainfall data (CHIRPS, 2000-2024) - Download 25 years of vegetation …