BerylOdoyo/kenya_coffee_analysis

Analysis of Kenya's coffee production decline and regional competitive positioning (1990-2018) # Kenya Coffee Production Analysis (1990-2018) ☕📊 A comprehensive data analysis project examining Kenya's coffee production decline and regional competitive positioning in East Africa. This project reveals how political instability and policy failures contributed to a 37% production decline and loss of market position. --- ## 📋 Project Overview This analysis investigates Kenya's coffee sector decline from 1990 to 2018, examining production trends, regional competitive dynamics, and the correlation between political events and agricultural output. Through data-driven analysis, the project identifies root causes and proposes strategic recovery pathways. **Central Finding:** Kenya's coffee production fell 37% over three decades, and the country lost its #3 position in East African production to Tanzania in 2004, highlighting the devastating impact of political instability on agricultural sectors. --- ## 🎯 Key Findings ### Production Decline - **1990 Production:** 1,485 thousand 60kg bags - **2018 Production:** 930 thousand bags - **Total Decline:** 37% over 28 years - **Peak Year:** 1995 (1,664 thousand bags) - **Lowest Point:** 2008 (541 thousand bags - 67% below peak) ### Regional Competitive Position - **Historical Ranking:** 3rd in East Africa (1990-2003) - **Current Ranking:** 4th place (2004-2018) - **Overtaken By:** Tanzania in 2004 - **Current Gap:** Only 200 tonnes behind Tanzania - **Market Share:** 7% of East African production (down from historical ~12%) ### Political Correlation - **2003-2004:** Sharp decline following end of Moi era and unfulfilled reform expectations - **2007-2008:** Production collapsed to historic low during post-election violence - **2011:** Government policy reforms yielded 8.3% production increase - **Pattern:** Political instability = production collapse; policy support = recovery ### Regional Rankings (2018) 1. **Ethiopia:** 7,000+ thousand bags (54% regional share) 2. **Uganda:** 4,000+ thousand bags (31% regional …