beza1619/ethiopia-financial-inclusion-forecast

Forecasting system for Ethiopia's digital financial transformation \# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia \## 📊 Project Overview A comprehensive forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods and event impact modeling. Developed by Selam Analytics for the National Bank of Ethiopia consortium. \## 🎯 Business Context Ethiopia is undergoing rapid digital financial transformation with Telebirr (54M+ users), M-Pesa entry (10M+ users), and P2P digital transfers surpassing ATM withdrawals. This system forecasts progress on World Bank Global Findex indicators. \## 📈 Key Questions Addressed 1\. \*\*What drives financial inclusion in Ethiopia?\*\* 2\. \*\*How do events affect inclusion outcomes?\*\* 3\. \*\*How will inclusion look in 2025-2027?\*\* \## 🏗️ Project Structure ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ # Raw and processed data ├── notebooks/ # Complete analysis (Tasks 1-4) ├── dashboard/ # Streamlit dashboard (Task 5) ├── reports/ # Reports and visualizations ├── src/ # Python source code └── models/ # Model files \## ✅ Tasks Completed \### Task 1: Data Exploration and Enrichment \- Cleaned and structured financial inclusion dataset \- Added enriched data (gender, infrastructure, mobile penetration) \- Created data enrichment log \### Task 2: Exploratory Data Analysis \- Analyzed account ownership trends (2011-2024) \- Examined mobile money and digital payments growth \- Created event timeline analysis \- Generated key insights and hypotheses \### Task 3: Event Impact Modeling \- Built event-indicator association matrix \- Modeled impacts of Telebirr, M-Pesa, NFIS II, interoperability, 4G expansion \- Tested and refined model against historical data \### Task 4: Forecasting Access and Usage \- Created baseline forecasts using historical trends \- Incorporated event impacts \- Developed three scenarios (optimistic, base, pessimistic) \- Quantified uncertainty with confidence intervals \### Task 5: Dashboard Development \- B …