Bhuvanachandhiran/conflict-early-warning-system

Random Forest model that predicted Tigray War, Sudan 2023 civil war & forecasts 2025 African conflict risk (UCDP data) # Armed Conflict Early Warning System (Africa) 🛡️ **Random Forest model that successfully predicted:** - Tigray War (Ethiopia 2020) → **100% probability one year early** - Sudan Civil War (2023) → **99.9%+ probability** - Correctly identified Ghana & South Africa as low-risk Now live-forecasting **2025 conflict risk** using 2024 data. ## 2025 Conflict Risk Forecast (Live Model Output) **Extreme Risk Countries for 2025 (98%+ probability):** - Sudan · DRC · Nigeria · Somalia · South Sudan · Burkina Faso · Mali **Low Risk (under 5%):** - Ghana · South Africa · Rwanda · Kenya · Algeria ## Key Results | Country | Year Predicted | Model Risk | Actual Outcome | |---------------|----------------|------------|-----------------------------------| | Ethiopia | 2020 | 100.0% | Tigray War began Nov 2020 | | Sudan | 2023 | 99.9% | Civil War erupted April 2023 | | Ghana | 2023 | 1.8% | Remained peaceful | | Mali | 2021 | 99.5% | Jihadist surge + coup aftermath | ## Tech Stack - Python · scikit-learn · Random Forest · SMOTE · Folium · Geopandas - Data: UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED) v25.1 - Deployed as interactive Google Colab notebook ## Run It Yourself ) One click → full dataset download → model training → 2025 predictions