biniyamtibebe/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia ## 📌 Project Overview This project analyzes and forecasts **financial inclusion trends in Ethiopia**, with a primary focus on **account ownership and access to financial services**. The unified dataset combines observations, policy events, and contextual metadata, aiming to: - Explore historical trends in financial inclusion - Contextualize changes using major policy and infrastructure events - Build a reproducible pipeline for analysis and forecasting - Transparently document data gaps and limitations The project emphasizes **analytical correctness and interpretability**, avoiding unsupported causal claims. --- ## 🎯 Objectives 1. **Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)** - Analyze trends in account ownership and mobile money access - Identify data availability and gaps across indicators - Visualize trends with policy/event overlays 2. **Data Engineering** - Build a unified, schema-consistent dataset - Separate observations, events, and (potential) impact links - Ensure reproducibility and robustness 3. **Forecasting** - Forecast national account ownership trends - Use historical access indicators as the primary signal - Treat policy events as contextual, not causal inputs 4. **Documentation & Transparency** - Clearly document assumptions and limitations - Avoid overinterpretation of sparse or missing data --- ## 📂 Repository Structure ```plaintext Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia/ │ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.xlsx │ │ └── reference_codes.xlsx │ └── processed/ │ ├── notebooks/ │ ├── 01_data_inspection.ipynb │ ├── 02_exploratory_analysis.ipynb │ └── 03_forecasting.ipynb │ ├── src/ │ ├── data_loader.py │ ├── eda.py │ └── forecasting.py │ ├── figures/ │ └── plots/ │ ├── requirements.txt ├── README.md └── .gitignore ``` --- ## 🧾 Data Description The dataset follows a unified schema with multiple record types: ### Record Types - **observation**: Quanti …