Biruk7479/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia A forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods, developed for Selam Analytics. ## Overview Ethiopia is undergoing rapid digital financial transformation. This project builds a forecasting system to predict Ethiopia's progress on two core dimensions of financial inclusion as defined by the World Bank's Global Findex: - **Access** — Account Ownership Rate - **Usage** — Digital Payment Adoption Rate ## Business Context Ethiopia's Financial Landscape (2024): - **Telebirr**: 54M+ users since 2021 launch - **M-Pesa**: 10M+ users since 2023 entry - **Digital P2P transfers**: Now surpass ATM cash withdrawals - **Financial inclusion**: Only 49% (up from 46% in 2021) ## Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── .github/workflows/ │ └── unittests.yml # CI/CD pipeline ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Original datasets │ └── processed/ # Cleaned and enriched data ├── notebooks/ │ ├── task1_data_enrichment.ipynb │ ├── task2_eda.ipynb │ ├── task3_event_impact_modeling.ipynb │ └── task4_forecasting.ipynb ├── src/ │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── data_loader.py │ ├── preprocessing.py │ ├── event_impact.py │ └── forecasting.py ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py # Streamlit dashboard ├── tests/ │ └── __init__.py ├── models/ # Saved models ├── reports/ │ ├── figures/ # Generated visualizations │ └── data_enrichment_log.md ├── requirements.txt └── README.md ``` ## Installation 1. Clone the repository: ```bash git clone git@github.com:Biruk7479/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia.git cd Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia ``` 2. Create a virtual environment: ```bash python -m venv venv source venv/bin/activate # On Windows: venv\Scripts\activate ``` 3. Install dependencies: ```bash pip install -r requirements.txt ``` ## Usage ### Running the Analysis Notebo …