BoldwinMax/Zambia-Energy-Security-Risk-Model

Quantifying Zambia's hydropower vulnerability to El Niño droughts - a reservoir-based load-shedding risk model for planners and policy-makers # Zambia Energy Security Risk Model **Quantifying Zambia's hydropower vulnerability to El Niño droughts - a reservoir-based load-shedding risk model for planners and policy-makers** *Boldwin Mweemba | Data Analyst | Lusaka, Zambia | June 2026* --- ## Why this project exists In late May 2026, climate experts warned that El Niño is developing again in the Pacific Ocean - the same phenomenon responsible for Zambia's worst electricity crisis on record. Between 2023 and 2025, El Niño-driven drought pushed Lake Kariba to historic lows, forcing ZESCO to cut generation to near zero at Kariba North Bank and implement up to 21 hours of daily load-shedding across the country. Rather than just read the headline, this project asks two practical questions: > **1. What drives load-shedding, and how much does each factor matter?** > > **2. At a given Kariba reservoir level, how bad could load-shedding realistically get?** --- ## Key findings **1. Load-shedding is, first and foremost, a reservoir problem.** A single equation explains more than half of year-to-year variation: > **Expected load-shedding (hours/day) ≈ 16.1 - 0.21 × (Kariba % full)** At 75% full → ~0 hours. At 40% → ~7 hours. Near the emergency level → 14+ hours. **2. El Niño is the root cause, but Kariba is the mechanism.** El Niño suppresses rainfall, which drains Kariba, which cuts generation. Once you know the reservoir level, the climate index adds almost nothing statistically — its damage is already captured in the water level. For early warning: **watch the October Kariba level.** **3. The risk is not symmetric - bad years get worse faster.** At 20% reservoir, a typical year sees ~8 hours of load-shedding. A bad-case (90th percentile) year sees 18+ hours. Planners should size contingency against the worst case, not the average. **4. Diversification has not removed the risk.** Zambia added Kafue Gorge Lower (750 MW) and Maamba coal (300 MW) over the past decade, yet 2024 still brought record lo …