chitesishareef46-gif/zim-inflation-analysis

Statistical analysis and forecasting of Zimbabwe's inflation rate (2010–2025) using Python, Matplotlib and Power BI # 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe Inflation Analysis & ARIMA Forecasting (2010–2025) > **Author:** Shareef Chitesi > **Degree:** BSc Honours in Applied Mathematics and Computational Science > **Institution:** Midlands State University — Year 2 > **Tools:** Python · Pandas · NumPy · Matplotlib · Seaborn · Power BI · Excel --- ## The Story Behind This Project Zimbabwe has one of the most extraordinary inflation histories in the world. I grew up watching prices change overnight, seeing currencies come and go, and hearing adults talk about the economy in ways that never quite made sense to me as a child. When I started studying Applied Mathematics and Statistics at university, I finally had the tools to go back and actually *understand* what happened — and more importantly, to model where things might be heading. This project is my attempt to do exactly that. Using real data from the World Bank, RBZ, and ZIMSTAT, I analysed 15 years of Zimbabwe's inflation history across three very different currency eras. I then built a full **ARIMA model from scratch** — without using any forecasting libraries — implementing the mathematics directly using NumPy's linear algebra tools. This means every AR coefficient, every AIC calculation, and every residual diagnostic was hand-coded using the same mathematical principles covered in my degree. This isn't just an academic exercise. For banks, insurers, and financial institutions operating in Zimbabwe, understanding inflation behaviour is critical — for pricing products, managing risk, and planning for the future. This project is my way of showing that I can think about those problems quantitatively and rigorously. --- ## 📊 What I Found | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Period covered | 2010 – 2025 | | Peak inflation | **557.2%** (2020 — ZWL hyperinflation) | | Lowest point | **-2.4%** (2015 — deflation) | | Mean inflation (full period) | **75.0%** | | Median inflation | **7.2%** | | Selected model | **ARIMA(4, 1, 0)** — chosen by AIC | | AI …