CWWhitney/kenya_fruit_trees

Decision models for fruit tree interventions in Kenya - built in AgenaRisk Supplementary: Operationalizing theories of change for enhanced nutrition impact: A case study of fruit tree interventions on smallholder farms in Kenya Cory Whitney and Eike Luedeling University of Bonn ## Bayesian Network models The Bayesian Network models are given below. The green nodes within the ‘Production’ sub-module illustrate the computation used to arrive at the volume, quality and nutrient content of the available fruit. The purple nodes within the ‘Household’ sub-module represent household composition. Together these illustrate the computation used to arrive at the household fruit consumption potential, labor availability, and nutrient needs per year and per farm. The values generated for nutrient intakes and demands are generated based on the types of individuals represented in the ‘Household Composition (nutrient demand groups)’ node. The node states are ‘Healthy pregnant woman’, ‘Healthy lactating woman’, ‘Healthy not reproducing woman’, ‘Unhealthy pregnant woman’, ‘Unhealthy lactating woman’, ‘Unhealthy not reproducing woman’, ‘Healthy man’, ‘Unhealthy man’, ‘Healthy adolescent’, ‘Unhealthy adolescent’, ‘Healthy child’, ‘Unhealthy child’, ‘Healthy infant’, ‘Unhealthy infant’, ‘Healthy elderly’, and ’Unhealthy elderly. Specific information about the needs of these is shown in the Supplementary (Luedeling and Whitney 2018). In the following models the grey outline circles represent sub-modules of related nodes used to generate probabilities of the respective model parts. Green arrows indicate positive effects and red arrows indicate negative effects. Model built in the AgenaRisk software (Fenton and Neil 2017). Under the proposed policy, both papaya and mango trees are expected to be introduced into and managed within smallholder household farms and gardens. Papaya is typically managed as a sparsely-branched tree, typically quite tall. It can take from six to twelve months from seed to fruit. A serving of papaya of 200 grams contains roughly 4% o …