Dagi0808/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System **Client:** National Bank of Ethiopia consortium (DFIs, mobile money operators, NBE) **Analyst:** Dag Dagne — Selam Analytics **Period:** 2026 Week 11 Challenge --- ## Overview This project builds a forecasting system that predicts Ethiopia's progress on two core financial inclusion dimensions defined by the World Bank's Global Findex: | Dimension | Indicator | 2024 Baseline | |-----------|-----------|---------------| | **Access** | Account Ownership Rate | 49% | | **Usage** | Digital Payment Adoption Rate | ~35% | Forecasts are produced for **2025, 2026, and 2027** using trend regression augmented with event impact modelling. --- ## Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── .github/workflows/ │ └── unittests.yml # CI pipeline ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Original starter dataset (do not modify) │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.xlsx │ │ ├── reference_codes.xlsx │ │ └── Additional Data Points Guide.xlsx │ └── processed/ # Enriched analysis-ready data │ ├── ethiopia_fi_enriched.csv │ └── impact_links_enriched.csv ├── notebooks/ │ ├── 01_task1_data_exploration_enrichment.ipynb │ └── 02_task2_eda.ipynb ├── src/ │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── data_loader.py # Load raw/processed data │ └── enrich_data.py # Enrichment logic + new records ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py # Streamlit interactive dashboard ├── tests/ │ └── test_data_loader.py ├── models/ # Saved forecast model outputs ├── reports/figures/ # Generated charts ├── data/data_enrichment_log.md # Documents every data addition ├── requirements.txt └── README.md ``` --- ## Setup & Running ```bash # 1. Clone the repo git clone cd ethiopia-fi-forecast # 2. Create virtual environment python3 -m venv venv source venv/bin/activate # 3. Install dependencies pip install -r requirements.txt # 4. Run data enrichment (generat …