Danielmituku/ethiopia-financial-inclusion-forecast

🇪🇹 Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System - Time series analysis and forecasting for Access & Usage indicators (2025-2027). Built with Python, Streamlit, and WeasyPrint for PDF reports. # Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System 🇪🇹 A forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods, developed for the 10Academy Week 10 Challenge. ## 🎯 Project Objectives Build a forecasting system that predicts Ethiopia's progress on two core dimensions of financial inclusion: 1. **Access** — Account Ownership Rate (% of adults with financial account or mobile money) 2. **Usage** — Digital Payment Adoption Rate (% of adults making/receiving digital payments) ### Key Questions - What drives financial inclusion in Ethiopia? - How do events like product launches, policy changes, and infrastructure investments affect inclusion outcomes? - How will financial inclusion rates evolve in 2025-2027? ## 📊 Ethiopia's Financial Inclusion Context | Year | Account Ownership | Change | |------|------------------|--------| | 2011 | 14% | — | | 2014 | 22% | +8pp | | 2017 | 35% | +13pp | | 2021 | 46% | +11pp | | 2024 | 49% | +3pp | ### Key 2024 Indicators - Mobile money account ownership: 9.45% - Digital payment adoption: ~35% - Account for wage receipt: ~15% ## 🏗️ Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── .github/workflows/ │ └── unittests.yml # CI/CD pipeline ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Starter dataset │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv │ │ └── reference_codes.csv │ └── processed/ # Analysis-ready data │ ├── ethiopia_fi_enriched.csv │ ├── event_indicator_matrix.csv │ └── forecast_results.csv ├── notebooks/ # Jupyter notebooks for analysis │ ├── 01_data_exploration.ipynb │ ├── 02_eda.ipynb │ ├── 03_impact_modeling.ipynb │ └── 04_forecasting.ipynb ├── src/ # Source code modules │ ├── data_loader.py │ ├── visualization.py │ ├── forecasting.py │ └── generate_report.py # PDF report generator ├── scripts/ │ └── run_analysis.py # Full pipeline runner ├── …