Davinchigh/Time-Series-Analysis-of-COVID-19-Cases-Using-Holt-Winters-and-Autoregressive-Models-For-Ghana-

Reproducible Python time-series pipeline for Ghana COVID-19 daily cases (WHO): data cleaning, STL + ADF/KPSS stationarity, Holt-Winters & AutoReg with rolling CV/diagnostics, 28-day forecasts, and auto-generated plots/reports # Time Series Analysis of COVID-19 Cases (Ghana) Reproducible pipeline (Holt–Winters and AutoReg) for WHO Ghana daily COVID-19 cases. Includes robust cleaning from cumulative series, EDA, STL, stationarity tests, rolling-origin CV, diagnostics, and 28-day forecasts with intervals. Chapter 3 and 4 markdowns are auto-generated. ## Structure - code/ - run_all.py (main pipeline) - quick_sanity_check.py (optional) - data/ - ghana_data.csv (put your WHO CSV here; ignored by Git) - cleaned_ghana_cases.csv (created by the pipeline; ignored by Git) - images/ (plots + summary tables) - models/ (saved models; ignored by Git) - report/ - chapter3_methodology.md - chapter4_results.md ## Environment (Windows 11, Python 3.11) - Create venv: - python -m venv .venv - Set-ExecutionPolicy -Scope Process -ExecutionPolicy Bypass - .\.venv\Scripts\Activate.ps1 - Install packages: - python -m pip install --upgrade pip setuptools wheel - python -m pip install --only-binary=:all: numpy==1.26.4 scipy==1.12.0 - python -m pip install pandas==2.2.2 statsmodels==0.14.1 scikit-learn==1.4.2 matplotlib==3.8.4 seaborn==0.13.2 openpyxl==3.1.2 dataframe-image==0.1.11 - (optional) python -m pip install pmdarima==2.0.4 ## How to run - Save WHO CSV as: data/ghana_data.csv - Run: - python code\run_all.py ## Outputs - images/01_raw_and_ma7.png (raw + 7-day MA) - images/02_stl_decomposition.png (STL) - images/hw_holdout_results.csv, images/ar_holdout_results.csv - images/model_comparison.csv - images/10_final_forecasts.png, images/final_forecasts.csv - report/chapter3_methodology.md, report/chapter4_results.md