dime-worldbank/Disease-Modelling-SSA

This repository contains the code for an agent-based model used for COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa. The original code was written in Python by Aivin Solatorio and is since being developed in Java. Complimentary risk modelling has been conducted in R as an intermediate product and is also part of this repo # Agent-based Model (ABM) for CoVid19 in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) This repository contains the implementation of the agent-based model used to model the spread of COVID-19. ## Description The model consists of individual agents with basic demographic and household information. For more details, please see the wiki. ### The Population The agents can be parametrized by census data; fractions of census data can be used to generate smaller synthetic populations for faster simulation. Agents are classified based on economic activity. For each economic activity, we define an economic activity-based interaction matrix. This interaction matrix embeds the relative proportion that interaction among agents engaged in different economic activities. ### Mobility Mobility data from call-detail records (CDR) was used to parametrize the inter-district movement of agents. For each day of the week, a proportion of agents travel or stay for some time to other districts. These movements are informed by the empirical data. This allows the model to simulate spatiotemporal propagation of the disease driven by human mobility. Intra-district mobility is also parametrized to model adherence of individuals to local mobility restrictions. ### Limitations One of the model's limitations is that the interaction of agents is defined at the district level because we don't have data of actual workplaces. This can be easily extended when the data is available by setting the `economic_activity_location_id` attribute below to an actual workplace id instead of the district id. Also note that the economic activity interaction matrix is defined based on informed estimates but is not yet based on empirical data. A survey of population interaction dynamics including the economic activity of respondents is currently being carried out by a student associated with the project. ## Sample output The following visualizations are generated from the output of the model. Shown below is a graph of the …