dnNatnael/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia Selam Analytics — forecasting system for **Access** (Account Ownership) and **Usage** (Digital Payment Adoption) in Ethiopia, aligned with the World Bank Global Findex framework. ## Overview - **Access**: Share of adults (15+) with an account at a financial institution or using mobile money (past 12 months). - **Usage**: Share of adults who made or received a digital payment (past 12 months). The system: 1. **Loads and enriches** the unified financial inclusion dataset (observations, events, targets, impact links). 2. **Analyzes** patterns and event–indicator relationships. 3. **Models** how events (product launches, policy, infrastructure) affect inclusion via `impact_link` records. 4. **Forecasts** Access and Usage for 2025–2027 (trend + event-impact adjustments). 5. **Presents** results in an interactive dashboard. ## Data - **Unified dataset**: `data/raw/ethiopia_fi_unified_data.xlsx` - Sheet **ethiopia_fi_unified_data**: `observation`, `event`, `target`. - Sheet **Impact_sheet**: `impact_link` (event → indicator effects, lag, magnitude). - **Reference codes**: `data/raw/reference_codes.xlsx`. - **Enrichment guide**: `data/raw/Additional Data Points Guide.xlsx` (alternative baselines, direct/indirect indicators, market nuances). Enrichment (Task 1) adds: - 2011 Account Ownership (14%) for continuity. - Digital Payment Adoption Rate (Usage) for 2021 and 2024. - Placeholder structure for direct/indirect indicators (agent density, ATM/branch density, smartphone penetration, mobile internet) to be filled from IMF FAS, GSMA, ITU, NBE. ## Setup ```bash # From project root; use a virtual environment if possible python3 -m venv .venv source .venv/bin/activate # or .venv\Scripts\activate on Windows pip install -r requirements.txt ``` Dependencies include `pandas`, `openpyxl`, `numpy`, `scikit-learn`, `statsmodels`, `dash`, `plotly`, and `python-docx` for report generation. ## Usage ### Load and enrich data `` …