elbetel12/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System ## 📋 Project Overview A comprehensive forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods and event impact modeling. This project was developed for Selam Analytics to support a consortium including development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia. **Date Range**: 28 Jan 2026 - 03 Feb 2026 ## 🎯 Business Need Ethiopia is undergoing rapid digital financial transformation with Telebirr growing to over 54 million users since 2021 and M-Pesa entering in 2023 with over 10 million users. However, only 49% of Ethiopian adults have a financial account. The consortium needs to: - Understand what drives financial inclusion in Ethiopia - Analyze how events like product launches and policy changes affect inclusion - Forecast financial inclusion rates for 2025-2027 ## 📊 Core Indicators Based on World Bank's Global Findex framework: 1. **Access** - Account Ownership Rate (% of adults with financial account) 2. **Usage** - Digital Payment Adoption Rate (% of adults using digital payments) ## 📁 Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── .github/workflows/ │ └── unittests.yml ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Starter dataset │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv │ │ └── reference_codes.csv │ └── processed/ # Analysis-ready data ├── notebooks/ │ ├── task1_data_exploration.ipynb │ ├── task2_eda.ipynb │ ├── task3_event_impact_modeling.ipynb │ ├── task4_forecasting.ipynb │ └── README.md ├── src/ │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── data_loader.py │ ├── forecast.py │ └── visualization.py ├── dashboard/ │ ├── app.py │ ├── requirements.txt │ └── README.md ├── tests/ │ └── __init__.py ├── models/ # Saved models ├── reports/ │ ├── figures/ # Visualizations │ ├── task1_report.md │ ├── task2_report.md │ ├── task3_report.md │ ├── task4_report.md │ └─ …