Ephrathah0/ethiopia-financial-inclusion-forecast-w10

Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia Project Overview This project develops a transparent, policy-oriented forecasting system to analyze and project Ethiopia’s financial inclusion trajectory using the World Bank Global Findex framework. The analysis focuses on two core dimensions: Access — Account Ownership Rate Usage — Digital Payment Adoption Rate Given limited historical survey data, the project emphasizes event-based reasoning, scenario analysis, and explicit treatment of uncertainty rather than complex machine learning models. Business Context Ethiopia is undergoing rapid digital financial transformation driven by: Expansion of mobile money platforms (Telebirr, M-Pesa) Market liberalization and new entrants National digital infrastructure initiatives Despite these developments, financial inclusion growth has slowed, raising important policy questions that this project aims to explore. Project Objectives Understand and enrich financial inclusion data for Ethiopia Analyze historical patterns and structural gaps Model the impact of major events and policy interventions Forecast financial inclusion outcomes for 2025–2027 Communicate insights through an interactive dashboard Data Primary Dataset: ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv Reference Codes: reference_codes.csv Data follows a unified schema supporting observations, events, and modeled impact links. Additional data sources are documented in data_enrichment_log.md. Methodology Overview Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) on sparse time-series data Event impact modeling using lagged, additive effects Trend-based and scenario-driven forecasting Explicit uncertainty representation via confidence ranges Interactive visualization using Streamlit Project Structure data/ — Raw and processed datasets notebooks/ — Task-based analysis notebooks src/ — Reusable data processing and modeling logic dashboard/ — Interactive Streamlit application reports/ — Figures and written summaries