FEBEN-G/Ethiopia-Financial-Inclusion-Forecasting-System

# 🇪🇹 Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System --- ## 🚀 Overview The **Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System** is a comprehensive, data-driven analytical suite built to map, model, and project the future of digital finance in Ethiopia from 2025 to 2027. With Ethiopia’s population exceeding 120 million, achieving true financial inclusion is an ambitious goal codified in the **National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS-II)**. This project decodes the impact of recent macroeconomic shifts and policy milestones—from the end of state telecom monopolies to the rollout of the Fayda Digital ID and real-time payment infrastructures. We move beyond raw numbers to address the _"Missing Millions"_ paradox: why massive mobile money account growth hasn't translated linearly to broader account ownership, and how we can identify the infrastructure ceilings holding back rural penetration. --- ## 🔥 Key Features - 📊 **Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)**: Dive deep into the structural realities of access and usage metrics, identifying crucial paradoxes such as the "P2P Tipping Point" over ATM cash usage. - 🎯 **Event Impact Modeling**: Quantify the lag and elasticity of national events (e.g., Safaricom entry, FX liberalization) on financial behaviors using comparable country mappings. - 🔮 **Scenario-Based Forecasting**: Projected trends across **Base**, **Optimistic**, and **Pessimistic** scenarios for 2025-2027. - 📉 **Interactive Dashboard**: A dynamic Streamlit interface offering a real-time window into historical metrics, forecasted trajectories, and inclusion targets. --- ## 📂 Project Structure ```text ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Original datasets and reference codes │ └── processed/ # Cleaned, enriched data & forecasting outputs ├── notebooks/ # Jupyter Notebooks for step-by-step analysis │ ├── 02_eda.ipynb # Deep dive into patterns and paradoxes │ ├── 03_impact_modelin …