Galiishaq/telecom-revenue-forecasting

12-month revenue forecasting model for Ghana's telecom market with churn scenario analysis # Telecom Revenue Forecasting: Ghana Market Analysis **A financial forecasting model for telecom subscriber revenue with scenario analysis** A 12-month revenue forecasting model for Ghana's telecom market with churn scenario analysis. --- ## Business Problem Telecom operators need to forecast revenue under different churn scenarios to inform strategic planning and retention investments. This project builds a 12-month revenue forecasting model to: 1. **Quantify revenue at risk** from customer churn 2. **Model financial impact** of retention initiatives 3. **Support strategic planning** with scenario analysis **Target Use Case:** MIS & Data Science teams need forecasts for weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly planning cycles to inform company-wide decision-making. **Note:** This analysis uses a synthetic dataset of 100,000 customers generated with the Ghana Telecom Data Generator, calibrated to Ghana market statistics (NCA, MTN reports, Census data) to demonstrate forecasting methodology. --- ## Key Findings ### Current State (100,000 Subscriber Base) | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | **Active Customers** | 75,350 | | **Annual Churn Rate** | 24.6% | | **Average ARPU** | GH₵348.31/month | | **Current Monthly Revenue** | GH₵26.2M | | **Annual Revenue at Risk** | GH₵103.0M | ### 12-Month Revenue Projections Three scenarios modeled based on different churn outcomes: | Scenario | Annual Churn | 12-Month Revenue | vs Baseline | |----------|--------------|------------------|-------------| | **Baseline** | 24.6% (current) | GH₵277.5M | - | | **Optimistic** | 19.6% (-5pp) | GH₵285.5M | **+GH₵7.9M (+2.9%)** | | **Pessimistic** | 27.6% (+3pp) | GH₵272.7M | **-GH₵4.8M (-1.7%)** | ### Financial Impact Analysis **Optimistic Scenario (5pp churn reduction):** - Additional revenue: **GH₵7.9M over 12 months** - Customers saved from churning: **3,767** - Revenue growth: **2.9%** with zero new acquisition **Pessimistic Scenario (3pp churn increase):** - Revenue …