gbadeboolanrewaju381-png/Nigeria-Remittance-Cost-Analysis

Empirical analysis of remittance cost determinants into Nigeria using World Bank data (2011–2025) # Cost Determinants of Cross-Border Remittances into Nigeria **Evidence from the World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide Database (2011–2025)** An independent empirical research project examining what drives the cost of sending money into Nigeria from abroad — and whether that cost has fallen over time. --- ## Overview Sending remittances into Nigeria costs, on average, **5.7% of the amount sent** — nearly double the UN Sustainable Development Goal target of 3% by 2030. This project asks three questions: 1. **Does provider type matter?** Are banks really more expensive than money transfer operators or post offices? 2. **Does competition lower cost?** Do corridors with more competing providers charge less? 3. **Has cost fallen over time?** Is Nigeria on track toward the 3% global target? Using 11,862 provider-level price quotes from the World Bank's Remittance Prices Worldwide database, this project combines a panel regression with corridor fixed effects and a complementary quarterly time-series analysis (stationarity testing, cointegration, and CUSUM stability diagnostics) to answer all three. --- ## Key Findings | Question | Finding | |---|---| | **Provider type** | Banks cost **3.2 percentage points more** than money transfer operators (p = 0.002); post offices cost **2.5 points less** (p < 0.001) | | **Transfer size** | Larger transfers ($500 vs. $200) cost proportionally less — a fixed-fee effect (p < 0.001) | | **Competition** | Mixed evidence: significant in the aggregate time-series model, not significant in the panel model — reported honestly as an open question, not resolved in favor of either | | **Trend** | Cost has fallen significantly since 2011 (β = −0.29 pts/year, p < 0.001) — but remains well above the 3% SDG target | ### Mean Quarterly Remittance Cost, 2011–2025 --- ## Methodology Summary - **Data:** World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide, restricted to inbound transactions into Nigeria, 2011Q1–2025Q1, both $200 and $500 benchmark tra …