habilm-analytics/tanzania-best-ml-forecasting
Domaine:
educationType de record:
project
Créateur:
hab
Hôte:
End-to-end ML pipeline forecasting Tanzania CSEE pass rates · BEST 2020–2024 · 12 models · Streamlit dashboard · 2025–2030 forecast
# Forecasting Education Performance Using Machine Learning
## An End-to-End Analysis of Tanzania BEST Datasets (2020-2024)
> **Author:** Habil Masawika
> **Domain:** Education Analytics | Machine Learning | Public Policy
> **Status:** Complete portfolio project
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## Project Overview
This project builds a production-quality, end-to-end machine learning pipeline
that predicts and forecasts secondary school examination performance in Tanzania
using five years of national administrative education data from the Ministry of
Education, Science and Technology (MoEST).
The Certificate of Secondary Education Examination (CSEE) pass rate -- the
primary outcome measure -- is modelled as a function of teacher supply and
quality, infrastructure access, student retention, and system-scale indicators.
Twelve regression models are trained and compared, the best model is tuned via
cross-validated hyperparameter search, and predictions are explained using
feature importance, permutation importance, and partial dependence analysis.
A six-year forecast (2025-2030) is generated using three complementary methods,
and all results are presented through an interactive Streamlit dashboard.
### Why This Matters
Tanzania has invested heavily in secondary education expansion since 2015,
with enrolment roughly doubling and CSEE pass rates rising from 68% to 89%.
This project asks: *which measurable inputs drive those outcomes, and what
does the trajectory look like through 2030?* The answer informs teacher
deployment policy, infrastructure investment prioritisation, and regional
equity planning.
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## Dataset
| Property | Detail |
|---------------|--------|
| Source | Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (MoEST) -- BEST Annual Reports |
| Files | BEST_2020 through BEST_2024 National Data (.xlsx) |
| Format | 2020: numbered tables (Table N); 2021-2024: named sheets (T3.*) |
| Coverage | 26 mainland Tanzania regions x 5 years = ~130 panel obser …