hann2004/ethiopia-fi-forecast

Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia Build a forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods. # Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Event Impacts, Forecasts, and Dashboard A reproducible workflow to enrich data, analyze event impacts, generate forecasts (2025–2027), and deliver an interactive Streamlit dashboard. ## Quick Start ```bash # 1) Create/activate Python env (example) python -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate pip install -r requirements.txt # 2) Generate artifacts (if not already created) python src/build_event_indicator_matrix.py # writes trimmed association CSV; heatmap if libs available # 3) Run notebooks (Task 4 forecasting) # Open notebooks/04_forecasting_access_usage.ipynb and Run All # 4) Launch dashboard (Task 5) streamlit run dashboard/app.py ``` ## Repository Structure - data/processed/ — unified dataset and derived CSVs - notebooks/ — analysis and modeling notebooks - reports/ — markdown reports and exports (CSV/PNG) - src/ — helper scripts (matrix builder, etc.) - dashboard/ — Streamlit application - tests/ — pytest checks for core artifacts - .github/workflows/ — CI configuration ## Data Schema (Unified CSV) The combined dataset organizes rows by `record_type`: - observation: time series points (`indicator_code`, `observation_date`, `value_numeric`) - event: dated developments; referenced by impact links - impact_link: explicit links from events to indicators with fields: `pillar`, `related_indicator`, `impact_direction`, `impact_magnitude`, `lag_months`, `evidence_basis`, `source_url` - target: (optional) target levels for reference ## Task 1 — Data Enrichment - Input: unified CSV at data/processed/ethiopia_fi_unified_data_combined.csv - Output: updated enrichment log and validated fields - Artifacts: - reports/data_enrichment_log.md — added entries with `source_url`, `original_text`, `confidence`, `collected_by`, `collection_date`, `notes` ## Task 2 — EDA and Reporting - Notebook: notebooks/02_eda_analysis.ipynb - Report: reports/eda_report.md - Figures (examples): reports/figures/account_ownership_timeline.png, growt …