haohanchen/Chen-Liu-Climate-State

Working paper on climate, disease, and state capacity in Africa # Climate, Governance and Disease Haohan Chen (Political Science Department, Duke University) Yanlan Liu (Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University) ## Introduction **(See Report.HTML for our full report)** With crucial implications for public health and social development, the spatial-temporal variation of malaria infection and related mortality rates in central Africa have received growing attention. Previous studies investigated the correspondence of malaria with climate conditions, such as annual precipitation and daily maximum temperature. However, more detailed environmental conditions, such as vegetation density, dominant tree species, and surface water area, may affect the habitats and propagation of mosquitos, the major vector of malaria. In addition to these natural environmental conditions, societal control measures also play crucial roles in observed malaria rates. Such control measures can be closely related to the quality of governance and demographics. In this study, we investigate (1) the spatial-temporal patterns of reported malaria infection and mortality rates and (2) their relationships with environmental and socio-political variables. Malaria rate data came from a published dataset for countries in central Africa. Environmental variables were obtained from satellite remote sensing datasets and global land surface model outputs. Geo-coded socio-political variables were gathered from multiple sources. Spatial Gaussian process models were implemented, and informative variables were identified using the Bayesian information criterion. ## Sources of Data Socioeconomics (economics, some in PRIO): sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu Nightlight, forest, population etc.: grid.prio.org Conflict: ucdp.uu.se Presence of mosquitos: europepmc.org Malaria cases and deaths by country: who.int Meteorological dat …