hawire/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecast Forecast Ethiopia's financial inclusion indicators (**Access** = account ownership, **Usage** = digital payment adoption) for 2025–2027 using an enriched observation/event dataset, scenario modelling, event-impact links, backtesting, and sensitivity analysis. ## Key folders | Path | Purpose | |------|---------| | `data/processed/` | Enriched dataset, forecast CSVs, backtest & sensitivity outputs | | `src/` | Data loader, forecasting models, validation, pipeline runner | | `src/models/` | Baseline regression, advanced scenarios, event impact, metrics, backtesting, sensitivity | | `dashboard/` | Streamlit interactive dashboard | | `notebooks/` | EDA and modelling notebooks | | `reports/` | Interim reports, methodology, validation notes, figures | | `tests/` | Pytest suite (metrics, reproducibility, integration) | ## Features - **Baseline regression** (`src/models/forecast.py`) — account ownership with optional mobile/4G covariates - **Scenario forecasts** (`src/models/forecast_advanced.py`) — base / optimistic / pessimistic paths with CI bands; scenarios scale **growth and event effects**, not absolute levels - **Event impact** (`src/models/event_impact.py`) — confidence- and magnitude-weighted association matrix with lag metadata - **Backtesting** (`src/models/backtesting.py`) — expanding-window and leave-one-out tests with **MAE / RMSE / MAPE** - **Sensitivity** (`src/models/sensitivity.py`) — one-at-a-time sweeps and tornado rankings - **Reproducibility** — seeded RNG; covered by `tests/test_forecasting.py` - **Dashboard** — scenarios, validation metrics, sensitivity charts, event matrix, downloads ## Setup ```bash python -m pip install -r requirements.txt ``` Use a virtual environment if preferred: ```bash python -m venv venv # Windows: venv\Scripts\activate # macOS/Linux: source venv/bin/activate pip install -r requirements.txt ``` ## Run the full pipeline From the project root (`ethiopia-fi-forecast-task-1/`): …