Hermella-A/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System --- # 📋 Table of Contents - Project Overview - Key Findings - Project Structure - Setup and Installation - Data Enrichment - Analysis Workflow - Forecast Results - Interactive Dashboard - Model Explainability - Technical Details - Future Improvements - Technology Stack - Author --- # Project Overview This project develops a **financial inclusion forecasting system** for Ethiopia, predicting progress on two core dimensions of financial inclusion as defined by the World Bank's Global Findex. ### Financial Inclusion Metrics - **Access (Account Ownership Rate):** The share of adults (15+) who own an account at a financial institution or use a mobile money account. - **Usage (Digital Payment Adoption Rate):** The share of adults who use mobile money, debit/credit cards, or mobile phones to make digital payments. ## Business Context Selam Analytics, a financial technology consulting firm, was engaged by a consortium of development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia to answer the following questions: - What drives financial inclusion in Ethiopia? - How do policy changes, product launches, and infrastructure investments affect financial inclusion? - How will financial inclusion change in 2025–2027? ### Project Statistics | Metric | Value | | --------------- | -------------: | | Total Records | 43+ (Enriched) | | Observations | 40 | | Events | 15 | | Impact Links | 19 | | Forecast Period | 2025–2027 | --- # Key Findings | Finding | Result | | ----------------------------- | ----------------------------------------- | | Account Ownership (2024) | **49%** (up from 14% in 2011) | | Mobile Money Accounts (2024) | **9.45%** (up from 4.7% in 2021) | | 2021–2024 Trend | Growth slowed despite 54M …