Hermi-101/ethiopia-fi-forecast

Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System Project Lead: Hermela Angaw | Firm: Selam Analytics Objective: Track and forecast Ethiopia's digital financial transformation (2011–2027) using event-augmented time series methods. 🚀 Project Overview This repository contains a complete forecasting pipeline designed for a consortium of stakeholders (NBE, DFIs, and Mobile Operators). It addresses the "structural plateau" in Ethiopia's financial inclusion by modeling the impacts of infrastructure enablers (electricity, data cost) and market events (Telebirr, M-Pesa). Key Features Data Enrichment: Integrated IMF, World Bank, and GSMA data to bridge gaps in the Findex surveys. Event-Impact Modeling: A custom Association Matrix to quantify how product launches and policies move inclusion metrics. Scenario Forecasting: 2025–2027 projections across Optimistic, Base, and Pessimistic scenarios. Interactive Dashboard: A Streamlit-based delivery tool for stakeholder decision-making. 🛠 Environment Setup To reproduce the analysis and run the dashboard locally: code Bash download content_copy expand_less # 1. Clone the repository git clone cd ethiopia-fi-forecast # 2. Create and activate a virtual environment python -m venv venv source venv/bin/activate # Windows: venv\Scripts\activate # 3. Install required libraries pip install -r requirements.txt 📂 Project Structure code Text download content_copy expand_less ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Original starter dataset and reference codes │ └── processed/ # Enriched and cleaned data ready for modeling ├── notebooks/ # Step-by-step EDA, Modeling, and Forecasting ├── src/ # Python modules for data processing ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py # Streamlit Dashboard application ├── reports/ │ ├── figures/ # Generated charts and dashboard screenshots │ └── final_report.md # Comprehensive final analysis (blog-post style) ├── requirements.txt # List of all proje …