iNshiva/maize-yield-climate-eswatini

Analysis of climate change effects on maize yield in Eswatini (1993-2023) # 🌽 Effects of Climate Change on Maize Yield in Eswatini (1993–2023) ## 📌 Project Overview This project investigates how climate change variables temperature, rainfall, and carbon emissions have affected maize yield in Eswatini over a 30-year period (1993–2023). The analysis combines statistical methods, machine learning, and interactive visualizations to uncover meaningful patterns and forecast future yield trends. ## 🌍 Background & Context Maize (*Zea mays*) is the staple food crop of Eswatini, forming the foundation of both household food security and the national agricultural economy. The majority of maize production in Eswatini is carried out by **smallholder farmers** who depend almost entirely on **rain-fed agriculture**, with minimal access to irrigation infrastructure. This heavy dependence on rainfall makes Eswatini's maize sector extremely vulnerable to climate variability. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and prolonged droughts — increasingly linked to climate change — pose a serious threat to yields and by extension, the food security of the population. The **2015/2016 El Niño drought** serves as a stark example, pushing maize yield to its lowest recorded level of **0.73 t/ha** in 2016 — well below the national average. Understanding how climate variables drive yield variation is therefore not just an academic exercise but a **critical policy and planning need** for Eswatini's agricultural sector. --- ## 🎯 Objectives - Analyze trends in maize yield alongside key climate variables - Measure the strength of relationships between climate and yield - Build predictive models to explain yield variation - Forecast maize yield through 2031 based on historical climate trends --- ## 📂 Project Structure ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Original Excel dataset │ └── processed/ # Cleaned CSV dataset ├── visuals/ │ ├── trend_plots.png │ ├── correlation_heatmap.png │ ├── regression_actual_vs_predicted.png │ ├── …