Jaki77/ethiopia-fi-forecast

Forecasting Ethiopia's financial inclusion using event-augmented time series models to predict access and usage trends (2025-2027). # Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia ## 📋 Project Overview A comprehensive time-series forecasting system to predict Ethiopia's progress in financial inclusion for 2025-2027. This project analyzes account ownership (Access) and digital payment adoption (Usage) while modeling the impact of policy changes, product launches, and infrastructure investments. **Challenge Period**: 28 Jan 2026 - 03 Feb 2026 **Organization**: 10 Academy - Artificial Intelligence Mastery (Week 10 Challenge) ## 🎯 Business Context Ethiopia is undergoing rapid digital financial transformation with Telebirr (54M+ users) and M-Pesa (10M+ users), yet only 49% of adults have financial accounts (Global Findex 2024). Stakeholders including the National Bank of Ethiopia, mobile money operators, and development finance institutions need to understand: - What drives financial inclusion in Ethiopia - How events affect inclusion outcomes - Future trajectories for 2026-2027 ## 📊 Key Metrics - **Access**: Account ownership rate (% adults with financial/mobile money account) - **Usage**: Digital payment adoption rate (% adults making/receiving digital payments) ## 🗂️ Project Structure ```bash ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ # Data storage │ ├── raw/ # Original datasets │ └── processed/ # Enriched and cleaned data ├── notebooks/ # Jupyter notebooks for each task ├── src/ # Python source code ├── dashboards/ # Interactive dashboard files ├── reports/ # Analysis reports and documentation ├── scripts/ # Utility scripts └── tests/ # Test files ``` ## 📈 Tasks Overview 1. **Data Exploration & Enrichment** - Understand schema, add relevant observations/events 2. **EDA & Insight Generation** - Analyze trends, gaps, correlations 3. **Event Impact Modeling** - Quantify how events affect indicators 4. **Forecasting** - Predict Access and Usage rates (2025-2027) 5. **Da …