jemsethio/kenya-s2s-forecast-pilot

# Kenya S2S Forecast Pilot A reproducible forecast-to-product pilot for Kenya using the ECMWF Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System ensemble (AIFS ENS). The project downloads only the selected GRIB messages needed for the current workflow, preserves all 51 ensemble members, builds 15 daily forecast products, calculates member-first agroclimate indices and probabilities, aggregates results to counties, renders Kenya-masked maps, and serves passed products through a read-only FastAPI API. ## Current release Version `2.1.0` is a scientific and engineering pilot. The active end-to-end source is the 00 UTC AIFS ENS `enfo` product: - 50 perturbed members plus one control; - F006 through F360 at six-hour intervals; - precipitation, 2 m temperature, 2 m dew point, 10 m U/V wind, and surface shortwave radiation; - four six-hour steps aggregated into each initialization-relative UTC day; - canonical Zarr, county GeoParquet, numeric ensemble probabilities, masked multi-panel PNGs, and API discovery/query endpoints. Despite the repository name, the implemented release is the Days 1-15 medium-range foundation for a future seamless S2S system. Subseasonal and seasonal forecast ingestion are not yet active. Scientific method for the exact implemented scope. ## Processing path ```text AIFS ENS 00Z inventory -> selected GRIB byte ranges -> 51-member six-hourly canonical cube -> 15 member-preserving daily products -> member-first indices and probabilities -> Kenya county aggregation -> Zarr + GeoParquet + PNG -> read-only FastAPI ``` The API reads only validated, precomputed products. It never downloads GRIB or calculates scientific products during a request. ## Repository contents ```text config/ Scientific, model, unit, governance, and runtime configuration deploy/ Cron, launchd, systemd, Nginx, and environment examples docs/ Curated current-release, science, API, and deployment guides scripts/ Acquisition, processing, validation, plotting, …