joshuakhigbe/Carbon-Intensity-SSA

This repository contains the full data pipeline, exploratory analysis, machine learning models, and forecasting code for study examining the drivers of carbon intensity of energy across 46 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) nations from 2000 to 2023, with projections to 2035. # Machine Learning-Based Forecasting of Energy Carbon Intensity in Sub-Saharan Africa > **The Role of Energy Composition in Decarbonization Trajectories** --- ## Overview This repository contains the full data pipeline, exploratory analysis, machine learning models, and forecasting code for study examining the drivers of carbon intensity of energy across 46 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) nations from 2000 to 2023, with projections to 2035. Carbon intensity of energy, measured in grams of CO₂ per kilowatt-hour (gCO₂/kWh) is a critical metric for evaluating clean energy transitions. Unlike total emissions studies, this work places **energy mix composition** at the center of the analysis, offering a mechanistically grounded framework for understanding and forecasting decarbonization trajectories in a region that remains underrepresented in the ML literature. --- ## Key Findings - **XGBoost outperformed all models** with a test R² of 0.8946 and RMSE of 46.77 gCO₂/kWh - **Linear Regression failed** (R² = -0.003), confirming that carbon intensity dynamics are non-linear and cannot be captured by linear models - **Fossil fuel consumption volume, population size, and per capita energy use** are the dominant predictors of carbon intensity - **Most SSA countries are projected to see worsening or stagnant carbon intensity by 2035** under current trends, with Djibouti (731 gCO₂/kWh) and Eswatini (572 gCO₂/kWh) projected as the highest-intensity nations - **Mozambique, Comoros, and DRC** are projected to have the lowest carbon intensity by 2035, driven by hydropower dominance --- ## Repository Structure ``` Carbon Intensity Project/ │ ├── Data/ │ ├── co2-per-unit-energy.csv # Target variable - Our World in Data │ ├── elec-fossil-nuclear-renewables.csv # Electricity mix - Our World in Data │ ├── gdp-per-capita-worldbank.csv # GDP per capita - World Bank via OWID │ ├── per-capita-energy-use.csv # Energy consumption - Our World in Data │ ├─ …