Kalid-moh/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

# Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia This project analyzes and forecasts financial inclusion in Ethiopia using a unified, event-driven dataset. It supports evidence-based policy monitoring for Ethiopia’s National Digital Payments Strategy (NDPS) and related digital finance reforms. The analysis focuses on two core dimensions of financial inclusion: Access (e.g., account ownership) Usage (e.g., digital payments) The project integrates survey data, infrastructure indicators, policy events, and operator metrics into a single analytical framework. 🎯 Project Objectives Understand trends in financial inclusion in Ethiopia (2011–2024) Enrich the dataset with recent (2025) observations and key policy events Analyze drivers of inclusion across infrastructure, regulation, and market entry Model relationships between events and indicators using an impact-link schema Forecast financial inclusion outcomes for 2025–2027 🗂️ Repository Structure . ├── data/ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv │ ├── impact_links.csv │ └── reference_codes.csv │ ├── notebooks/ │ ├── task_1_data_exploration.ipynb │ └── task_2_eda.ipynb │ ├── data_enrichment_log.md ├── README.md └── requirements.txt 🧱 Unified Data Schema The dataset is organized around three core record types: 1. Observations Measured indicators collected from surveys, operators, and official reports (e.g., account ownership rate, mobile money penetration, 4G coverage). Key fields: pillar (Access, Usage, Enablers) indicator_code value_numeric observation_date source_name, source_url confidence 2. Events Discrete milestones that may influence financial inclusion: Policy launches (e.g., NDPS) Product launches (e.g., Telebirr, M-Pesa) Infrastructure expansions (e.g., 4G rollout) Events do not contain numeric values but are linked to indicators via impact modeling. 3. Targets Official policy goals used for benchmarking progress against strategy objectives. 4. Impact Links The impact_links table conne …