kernemi/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

# 📊 Financial Inclusion Forecasting Dashboard for Ethiopia An interactive analytics dashboard that forecasts Ethiopia's path to 60% financial inclusion by 2027, using advanced time series modeling and real-time data visualization. ## 🚀 Dashboard Overview **Key Performance Indicators:** - Current Account Ownership: **49%** (+27pp since 2014) - 2027 Forecast: **79.4%** (exceeds 60% target by +19.4pp) - Mobile Penetration: **61.4%** (Digital Growth Engine) - Annual Growth Rate: **8.3%** CAGR **Dashboard Features:** - 📈 **Interactive Analytics:** Multi-pillar trend analysis with date filtering - 🔮 **Advanced Forecasting:** ETS model with 95% confidence intervals - 🎯 **Scenario Planning:** Optimistic, base case, and pessimistic projections - 📊 **Data Explorer:** Real-time filtering and CSV export capabilities **Key Insight:** Ethiopia will exceed the 60% financial inclusion target by **2025** - two years ahead of schedule ## 🚀 Quick Start ### Prerequisites - Python 3.8+ - Streamlit 1.31+ ### Installation & Launch ```bash # Clone repository git clone github.com cd Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia # Install dependencies pip install -r requirements.txt # Launch dashboard cd dashboard streamlit run app.py ``` **Access Dashboard:** `localhost` ## 🎯 Key Findings ### Will Ethiopia Reach 60% Financial Inclusion by 2027? ✅ **YES** - Projected to reach **79.4%**, significantly exceeding the target ### Timeline to Target Achievement 📅 **2025** - Target expected 2 years ahead of schedule ### Best Forecasting Model 🏆 **ETS (Exponential Smoothing)** - 45% better accuracy than ARIMA ### Growth Trajectory 📈 **8.3% CAGR** - Sustained growth momentum since 2014 ## 📁 Project Structure ``` ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py # 🎨 Interactive Streamlit Dashboard ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # 📥 Original datasets │ ├── processed/ …