Keuya/LTWP-Solar-Integration

Hybridising Kenya's largest wind farm: PVsyst-based solar integration with complementarity, curtailment and bankability analysis # LTWP Solar Integration — Hybridising Kenya's Largest Wind Farm Can a 77.5 MWp solar plant co-located with Lake Turkana Wind Power (310 MW) add energy **without new transmission**, and does it stand up commercially? This repo combines actual PVsyst simulation results with a hybrid complementarity and curtailment analysis, and an honest scenario-based LCOE. ## Design (PVsyst simulation, actuals in `data/`) | Parameter | Value | |---|---| | Solar capacity | 77.50 MWp / 74.62 MWac | | Annual energy to grid | **199.3 GWh (P50)** | | Performance ratio | 86.2% | | Specific yield | ~2,572 kWh/kWp (Turkana is an exceptional solar site) | ## Why hybridise: the complementarity case 1. **Diurnal:** the Turkana low-level jet blows hardest at night; solar fills the daytime trough. The stylised combined peak (~267 MW) stays well below a 400 MW evacuation assumption — **solar re-uses interconnection the wind farm already paid for**, the single biggest cost advantage of this project. 2. **Seasonal:** wind output sags November–April, exactly when irradiance holds steady. Hybrid output is materially flatter — worth real money to a grid operator managing evening hydro dispatch. 3. **Infrastructure leverage:** roads, O&M base, substation and the 400 kV Loiyangalani–Suswa line exist. Marginal integration cost is close to panels + inverters + a new bay. ## LCOE — corrected, with scenarios An earlier version of this analysis quoted €0.0194/kWh from the PVsyst economic module. That figure ignores discounting and is not defensible in front of a lender. Recomputed (10% real discount rate, 0.5%/yr degradation, $0.75/W CAPEX, $10/kW-yr OPEX, 25 yrs): | Scenario | Energy sold (GWh/yr) | LCOE (USD/kWh) | |---|---|---| | Base (P50) | 199.3 | **0.037** | | P90 yield | 189.4 | 0.039 | | CAPEX +20% | 199.3 | 0.044 | | Curtailment 10% | 179.4 | 0.042 | | Combined downside | 170.4 | **0.052** | Even the combined downside clears typical Kenyan solar procurement levels. The economics are ro …