lillifeofcisco/ghana-macro-forecasting

# Ghana Macroeconomic Forecasting & Exchange Rate Pass-Through Platform An econometric modeling engine and web application designed to analyze and forecast USD/GHS exchange rate dynamics, CPI inflation, and exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in Ghana. ## Features - **Data Preprocessing**: Log-differencing and stationarity transformations for Ghanaian macro series. - **Stationarity Testing**: Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test implementation. - **Vector Autoregression (VAR)**: Multivariate time-series modeling and Cholesky-identified Impulse Response Functions (IRF). - **Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT)**: Elasticity calculations estimating CPI sensitivity to exchange rate shocks. - **GARCH(1,1) Volatility Modeling**: Conditional variance estimation for currency risk assessment. - **Import Cost Pass-Through Calculator**: Real-world pricing impact simulator for imported goods. ## Project Structure ``` ├── econometric_pipeline.py # Main econometric modeling engine (VAR, GARCH, ADF) ├── macro_forecasting_prototype.py # Standalone prototype & pass-through calculator ├── requirements.txt # Python dependencies ├── README.md # Project documentation └── .gitignore # Git ignore file ``` ## Data Sources - Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) StatsBank - GSS Microdata Catalog - Bank of Ghana Economic Releases ## Setup & Running 1. Clone the repository: ```bash git clone github.com cd ghana-macro-forecasting ``` 2. Install dependencies: ```bash pip install -r requirements.txt ``` 3. Run the econometric pipeline: ```bash python econometric_pipeline.py ```