mahii8/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting 10 Academy Week 11 Challenge — forecasting Ethiopia's Access (Account Ownership) and Usage (Digital Payment Adoption) for 2025–2027, and modeling how events (product launches, policy changes, infrastructure) affect them. ## Setup ```bash pip install -r requirements.txt ``` ## Project Structure data/raw/ - starter dataset (unified data, reference codes) data/processed/ - enriched dataset + data_enrichment_log.md notebooks/ - 01 enrichment, 02 EDA, 03 impact modeling, 04 forecasting dashboard/app.py - Streamlit dashboard reports/figures/ - saved plots ## Data Schema Events are category-tagged but pillar-neutral; their effects on Access/Usage/Gender indicators are captured via `impact_link` records joined on `parent_id`. ## Key Findings - Account ownership growth is decelerating: +13pp (2014–17) → +11pp (2017–21) → +3pp (2021–24), despite Telebirr and M-Pesa launches. - Mobile money ownership doubled (4.7% → 9.45%, 2021–24) without a matching rise in account ownership — mobile money appears to be converting existing account holders more than reaching the unbanked. - Gender gap in account ownership: 20pp (2021) → 18pp (2024). - P2P transfers overtook ATM withdrawals by mid-2025 (crossover ratio 1.08). ## Run Dashboard ```bash streamlit run dashboard/app.py ```