Maireg789/EthioFin-Forecast

A data-driven forecasting engine tracking Ethiopia's digital financial transformation. Utilizes event-impact modeling and sparse time-series analysis to predict financial inclusion Access and Usage metrics (2025-2027). # 🇪🇹 EthioFin Forecast: Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System ## Project Overview Developed for **Selam Analytics**, this system tracks and forecasts Ethiopia's digital financial transformation. By bridging the gap between supply-side growth (Telebirr/M-Pesa) and demand-side reality (Global Findex), this tool provides actionable inclusion insights for the 2025–2027 period. ## ✅ Project Progress (Final Submission) - [x] **Task 1: Data Exploration & Enrichment** - Enriched data with Telebirr (54M) and M-Pesa (10M) subscriber growth for 2022–2024. - [x] **Task 2: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)** - Documented the "Usage Crossover" where P2P transfers surpassed ATM withdrawals. - [x] **Task 3: Event Impact Modeling** - Developed a numeric **Association Matrix** linking policies (Digital ID) and launches to inclusion growth. - Visualized impacts via a Heatmap to identify key inclusion drivers. - [x] **Task 4: 2025–2027 Forecasting** - Built an Event-Augmented model with three scenarios: **Optimistic (62%)**, **Base (53%)**, and **Pessimistic (50%)**. - [x] **Task 5: Interactive Dashboard** - Deployed a **Streamlit App** with scenario selectors and interactive visualizations. ## 📂 Project Structure - `dashboard/`: **app.py** - The interactive Streamlit dashboard. - `data/`: Unified financial inclusion data and reference codes. - `notebooks/`: - `01_exploration_and_enrichment.ipynb` - `02_exploratory_data_analysis.ipynb` - `03_event_impact_modeling.ipynb` - `04_forecasting.ipynb` - `reports/figures/`: Saved charts (Heatmaps, Forecasts, and Trajectories). - `data_enrichment_log.md`: Provenance for external data sources. ## 📊 Strategic Insights 1. **The 60% Target:** Ethiopia can reach its national inclusion goal of 60% by 2027 only in the **Optimistic Scenario**, requiring full Fayda ID integration. 2. **Digital Dominance:** For the first time, digital P2P transfers have structurally overtaken cash-heavy ATM withdrawals. 3. **Slowdown Factors:** The 2021-2024 …