Maria-Biruk/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# 🇪🇹 Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia A production-grade data science project that forecasts Ethiopia's financial inclusion trends using historical Global Findex data, digital finance indicators, and interactive visualizations. The project provides actionable insights for policymakers, financial institutions, and development organizations by forecasting account ownership and digital payment adoption through 2027. --- # Business Problem Financial inclusion is a key driver of economic growth and poverty reduction. Ethiopia has experienced rapid expansion of digital financial services through initiatives such as Telebirr and M-PESA, yet forecasting future adoption remains challenging. Government agencies, financial institutions, and development partners require reliable forecasts to: * Monitor progress toward national financial inclusion targets. * Evaluate the impact of digital financial services. * Support evidence-based policy decisions. * Identify future investment opportunities. --- # Solution Overview This project combines historical financial inclusion indicators with forecasting techniques to estimate future trends in financial access and digital payment usage. The solution includes: * Historical trend analysis * Forecasting for 2025–2027 * Scenario analysis (Optimistic, Base, and Pessimistic) * Interactive Streamlit dashboard * Automated testing using Pytest * Continuous Integration using GitHub Actions --- # Key Features * 📊 Interactive Streamlit dashboard * 📈 Historical financial inclusion trends * 🔮 Multi-scenario forecasting * 📉 Confidence interval visualization * 📥 Downloadable forecast results * 🧪 Unit testing with Pytest * ⚙️ Automated CI/CD using GitHub Actions * 🏗️ Modular and maintainable project architecture --- # Technologies Used * Python * Streamlit * Pandas * NumPy * Plotly * SciPy * Pytest * GitHub Actions * OpenPyXL --- # Project Structure ```text ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── dashboard/ │ ├── app.py │ └── pages …