Markwema86/African-Sovereign-Analysis

# African Sovereign Analysis ## 📋 Project Overview **Research Question:** Where should patient capital (long-term, risk-tolerant investors) be deployed across African markets in 2026? **Thesis:** Despite Kenya's reputation as East Africa's financial hub, data suggests Ghana presents a superior risk-adjusted opportunity for patient capital deployment in 2026. **Author:** Mark Wema **Date:** 4th - 8th June 2026 **Analysis Universe:** 5 African markets (Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt) --- ## 🎯 Key Findings Summary ### Kenya vs Ghana Comparison (Head-to-Head) | Metric | Kenya | Ghana | Winner | |--------|-------|-------|--------| | **GDP Growth** | 4.73% | 5.59% | 🇬🇭 Ghana | | **Inflation** | 4.49% | 22.85% | 🇰🇪 Kenya | | **FDI (% of GDP)** | 0.39% | 2.15% | 🇬🇭 Ghana | | **GDP per Capita (USD)** | $2,132 | $2,391 | 🇬🇭 Ghana | | **Government Debt (% GDP)** | 70.2% | 84.9% | 🇰🇪 Kenya | | **Consumer Momentum (Trends)** | 14.2/25 | 16.8/25 | 🇬🇭 Ghana | **Initial Score:** Kenya 2 - Ghana 4 **Conclusion:** "Ghana ahead early - thesis has legs" --- ## 📁 Repository Structure & File Documentation ### 1. **African_Sovereign_Analysis.ipynb** **Type:** Jupyter Notebook (Primary Analysis) **Size:** 82.7 KB **Status:** ✅ Complete Analysis Notebook #### Contents: - **Data Collection Pipeline:** - World Bank API integration (13 indicators) - IMF WEO 2024 estimates (macroeconomic data) - Google Trends API (consumer/business signals) - **Scoring Model:** - Macro Stability (30%): Inflation, debt, current account - Growth Trajectory (25%): GDP growth, FDI, investment - Digital Economy (20%): Mobile & internet penetration - Market Maturity (15%): GDP per capita, literacy - Consumer Momentum (10%): Google Trends signals - **Key Analyses:** - Comparative country scoring - Sensitivity analysis (±10% to ±20%) - Peer country analysis - Investment thesis validation #### World Bank Indicators Extracted: ``` ✓ GDP (USD) - Market size ✓ GDP Growth (%) …