marvus-creator/SENTINEL

See disaster coming. Rainfall + 3D terrain fused into flood and landslide early warnings for Rwanda - with a replay of the May 2023 disaster as its audition. # SENTINEL **See disaster coming. Hours matter.** On the night of 2–3 May 2023, floods and landslides killed more than 130 people in Rwanda's Western and Northern Provinces. The rain that caused it was visible in forecast data before the hillsides gave way. SENTINEL fuses live rainfall with real 3D terrain to score flood and landslide risk for all 30 districts of Rwanda — and drafts the warnings, in English and Kinyarwanda, while there is still time to act. ## The product - **Home** — the problem and the promise, in plain language - **3D Command Center** — Rwanda's real mountains rendered from satellite elevation data, with risk columns rising from every district; orbit, zoom, click - **Districts** — all 30 districts ranked by current risk, searchable - **District risk file** — the rainfall curve (72h behind / 48h ahead), flood and landslide breakdowns, the terrain factors, and the exact warning message SENTINEL would send - **Alerts** — every district at Warning or Severe, with bilingual SMS drafts - **How it works** — the full methodology, including honest limits ## The two modes - **Live** — current conditions, refreshed every 15 minutes from Open-Meteo forecasts - **Replay: May 2023** — the actual recorded rainfall of the disaster, fed through the exact same engine, no tuning. The districts it flags — Rubavu, Rusizi, Burera, Karongi, Muhanga — are the districts that made the news. That is the system's audition. ## The science - **Rain**: hourly precipitation per district centroid (Open-Meteo, free and public) — 72h accumulation (ground saturation) + 48h forecast (incoming threat) + peak intensity - **Terrain**: 76 m-resolution elevation for the whole country (AWS Terrain Tiles); per district: mean slope, share steeper than 15° (landslide susceptibility), share flatter than 5° (flood susceptibility). Ngororero and Gakenke come out 64% steep; Bugesera 65% flat — matching Rwanda's disaster history. - **Risk** = rain factor × terrain susceptibility, 0–100, f …