marymaryem/mobility-in-sousse-research

machine-learning python urban-mobility tunisia transportation data-science # mobility-in-sousse-research # 🚐 Kalaa Kebira → Beb Bhar — Urban Mobility Study ### Predicting shared taxi demand and diagnosing service failures on Sousse's most-used informal transit corridor ## The Problem The city of Sousse has a formal bus network, but chronic unreliability — irregular schedules, long gaps, and unpredictable service — has pushed the majority of daily commuters toward **shared taxis (louages)** as their primary means of transport. On the **Kalaa Kebira → Beb Bhar corridor**, louages are the de facto public transit system. Yet they operate with no schedule, no coordination, and no data. The result: passengers can wait 5 minutes or 40 minutes with no way to know which it will be. During peak hours, when a louage finally arrives after a long gap, the rush of passengers means many are left behind and the wait resets. This project studies that system — rigorously and from the ground up — to understand *why* waits are long, *when* they are worst, and *what interventions* would have the highest impact. --- ## Research Questions 1. At which zones and time slots is demand consistently outpacing supply? 2. Which of the four service failure types dominates — and does it vary by location and hour? 3. Can we predict wait severity and failure case type based on boarding zone, time slot, and travel frequency? 4. What is the measurable contribution of bus unreliability to louage overcrowding? 5. What low-cost interventions (scheduling coordination, physical infrastructure, signage) would close the gap? --- ## The Four Failure Cases This project distinguishes four structurally different reasons a passenger waits: | Case | Description | Root cause | Solution direction | |------|-------------|------------|-------------------| | **Case 1** | A louage passes but is already full | Demand exceeds total supply | More louages, or pre-positioning | | **Case 2** | A louage passes but goes a different route (e.g. Sahloul) | Route confusion / mixed lines | Sign …