mbuguakevvz/eye-health-dropout-predictor

A data engineering pipeline that predicts referral dropout risk in NGO-powered community eye health screening programs — built for Kenya and scaled globally. # 👁️ Eye Health Dropout Risk Predictor > A data engineering pipeline that predicts referral dropout risk in > NGO-powered community eye health screening programs — built for Kenya > and scaled globally across 10 countries. --- ## 🌍 The Problem Over **1 billion people** live with unaddressed vision impairment globally. The barrier is not medical technology — it is the gap between: > *"You were screened and told to go to a clinic"* > and > *"You actually arrived and received treatment."* NGOs like **Peek Vision**, **CBM**, **Fred Hollows Foundation**, and **Sightsavers** run community eye screening programs across Africa, Asia, and Latin America — but have no early warning system for which patients will drop out before completing their referral journey. This project builds that early warning system. --- ## 🎯 What This Project Does | Layer | What Was Built | |---|---| | **Data Simulation** | Synthetic patient records for Kenya (50K) + 10 countries (100K) | | **ETL Pipeline** | Extract → Validate → Transform → Load to SQLite | | **Feature Engineering** | Risk tiers, vulnerability scores, distance bands, age groups | | **ML Model** | Random Forest dropout classifier · ROC-AUC 0.71 | | **Risk Scoring** | Every patient scored and ranked by dropout probability | | **Dashboard** | Interactive HTML visualization across all regions | --- ## 📊 Key Findings ### Global Dropout Rates by Country | Country | Region | Dropout Rate | UHC Index | |---|---|---|---| | Papua New Guinea | Pacific | 90.5% | 32 | | Ethiopia | Sub-Saharan Africa | 78.4% | 34 | | Uganda | Sub-Saharan Africa | 67.6% | 37 | | Myanmar | Southeast Asia | 62.4% | 42 | | Tanzania | Sub-Saharan Africa | 59.7% | 39 | | Cambodia | Southeast Asia | 52.6% | 44 | | Bangladesh | South Asia | 46.6% | 48 | | Bolivia | Latin America | 39.4% | 52 | | India | South Asia | 37.2% | 56 | | Peru | Latin America | 23.4% | 65 | ### Kenya County Breakdown (Vision Impact Project) | County | Dropout Rate | Needs Outre …