Mihret-Akalu/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecast (2014–2027) This project analyzes trends in financial inclusion in Ethiopia and produces scenario-based forecasts for access and usage of financial services through 2027. It includes data exploration, feature engineering, forecasting models, and an interactive Streamlit dashboard for visualization. --- ## 📌 Project Objectives * Explore historical financial inclusion indicators for Ethiopia * Enrich raw datasets with reference codes and metadata * Analyze trends in **account ownership (access)** and **digital payment usage (usage)** * Engineer features for time-series modeling * Forecast financial inclusion outcomes for **2025–2027** under multiple scenarios * Provide an interactive dashboard for policymakers and analysts --- ## 📁 Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.xlsx │ │ └── reference_codes.xlsx │ └── processed/ │ └── ethiopia_fi_enriched.csv ├── src/ │ ├── task1_data_exploration_and_enrichment.py │ ├── task2_exploratory_data_analysis.ipynb │ ├── task3_feature_engineering.ipynb │ └── task4_forecasting.ipynb ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py ├── requirements.txt └── README.md ``` --- ## ⚙️ Setup Instructions ### 1️⃣ Create Virtual Environment (Optional but Recommended) ```bash python -m venv venv venv\Scripts\activate # On Windows ``` ### 2️⃣ Install Dependencies ```bash pip install -r requirements.txt ``` If `requirements.txt` is missing, install manually: ```bash pip install pandas numpy matplotlib seaborn statsmodels scikit-learn streamlit openpyxl ``` --- ## ▶️ How to Run Each Task ### ✅ Task 1 – Data Exploration & Enrichment ```bash python src/task1_data_exploration_and_enrichment.py ``` This loads raw Excel files, cleans and enriches the dataset, and outputs: ``` data/processed/ethiopia_fi_enriched.csv ``` --- ### ✅ Task 2 – Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) Open and run: ```bash src/task2_exploratory_data_analy …