MohamedAbdallaKhalil/Subnational-EWS

A subnational, multi-dimensional early warning system for monitoring conflict escalation in Sudan. Designed as a decision support system, it integrates adaptive thresholds and interpretable indicators to support analyst-guided situational awareness, prioritization, and escalation review. Overview This repository contains the implementation of a subnational, multi-dimensional Early Warning System (EWS) for monitoring conflict escalation in Sudan. The system is designed as a Decision Support System (DSS) that produces interpretable, analyst-guided signals to support operational situational awareness, prioritization, and escalation review. Features Integrates seven complementary escalation indicators: intensity, lethality, diffusion, acceleration, volatility, dominance, and a composite escalation index. Employs adaptive, region-specific thresholds to detect meaningful deviations from local baselines. Generates multi-level alerts (normal, watch, warning, crisis) for structured decision support. Designed for analyst-in-the-loop use, preserving human judgment and interpretability. Supports subnational monitoring, capturing local dynamics in data-constrained environments. Data Sources UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED) Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)