Mohamedval2003/imported-inflation-mauritania

Econometric and machine learning analysis of imported inflation in Mauritania, developed during an academic internship at ANSADE. # Imported Inflation Analysis in Mauritania An econometric and machine-learning study of how import prices, exchange-rate movements and major imported product categories are associated with inflation in Mauritania. This repository is the public, English-language version of a Data Science graduation project completed at the University of Nouakchott. The project was developed during an academic internship at the **National Agency for Statistics and Demographic and Economic Analysis** (*L’Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de l’Analyse Démographique et Économique — ANSADE*) in Mauritania. > **Data privacy:** the original institutional datasets are not included in this repository. The public version contains the methodology, source code, aggregated tables and final figures only. ## Project overview Mauritania imports a large share of its food, energy and manufactured goods. Changes in international prices and in the USD/MRU exchange rate can therefore affect domestic consumer prices. The project addresses two questions: 1. Which imported product categories are most strongly associated with inflation in Mauritania? 2. Which statistical or machine-learning model best predicts monthly inflation and the National Consumer Price Index (INPC)? ## Objectives - Prepare and combine monthly INPC, Import Unit Value Index (UVI), exchange-rate and detailed import data. - Measure immediate and delayed transmission effects using Distributed Lag Models (DLM). - Rank the ten most economically relevant imported categories. - Compare statistical and machine-learning forecasting models. - Produce interpretable tables and figures for economic monitoring. ## Data used The original analysis uses four institutional data sources: | Data source | Role in the analysis | |---|---| | National Consumer Price Index (INPC) | Measures the monthly evolution of consumer prices and inflation | | Import Unit Value Index (UVI) | Represents changes in import prices | | USD/MRU exchange rate | C …