MrDenzy/PHASE-5-PROJECT---Forecasting-County-Level-Acute-Food-Insecurity-in-Kenya-Using-Climate-Shocks-Mark

Predicting Household Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in East Africa Using Socioeconomic and Climate Data # 📊 Predicting County-Level Acute Food Insecurity in Kenya ### A Climate–Market–Conflict Early Warning Model --- ## 🌍 Project Overview This project develops a **county-level early warning system** to predict acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or worse) in Kenya one month ahead. **streamlit Dashboard.** huggingface.co Current food security assessments under the :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0} (IPC) primarily describe past conditions. This limits proactive humanitarian action. By integrating: - Climate indicators - Market prices - Conflict data this project builds a predictive model that supports forward-looking humanitarian decision-making. The analytical framework aligns with institutions such as: - World Food Programme(WFP) - Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO) - Famine Early Warning Systems Network(FEWS NET) --- ## 🎯 Objectives ### Primary Objective Build a county-level model that estimates the probability of entering **IPC Phase 3+** one month ahead. ### Secondary Objectives - Construct a harmonized county–month panel dataset - Identify the most important drivers of acute food insecurity - Compare: - Logistic Regression - Random Forest - XGBoost - Develop a prototype dashboard for risk visualization --- ## 🧠 Problem Statement Food insecurity monitoring in Kenya is largely descriptive and retrospective. There is no simple, integrated predictive system combining: - Rainfall variability - Vegetation health - Food prices - Conflict instability As a result: - Humanitarian response is reactive - Resources are allocated after crisis onset - Early warning signals are not fully utilized This project addresses that gap with a **short-term classification model for IPC Phase 3+ risk.** --- ## 📦 Data Sources All datasets were harmonized into a **county–month panel (2015–2025).** ### 1️⃣ IPC Classifications (Target Variable) Source: ipcinfo.org - Original quarterly IPC phases expande …