MsObakoya/nigeria-digital-payments-analysis

Analysis of Nigeria’s digital payment ecosystem using CBN data (2009–2025), focusing on transaction growth, SME behavior, and financial inclusion. # Transaction Behavior Patterns in Nigeria's Digital Payment Ecosystem A data-driven analysis of SME payment trends and financial inclusion dynamics in Nigeria, using 16 years of payment system data. --- ## 📌 Overview Nigeria’s digital payment ecosystem has experienced explosive growth over the past decade, particularly through Point-of-Sale (POS) systems and agent banking networks. This project analyzes transaction data from 2009–2025 to understand: - How digital payment adoption has evolved - What drives sustained usage - Where the next wave of growth will come from --- ## ❓ Key Question **What does Nigeria’s payment data reveal about the next phase of digital financial adoption — and what is still preventing full participation?** --- ## 📊 Key Insights - **15,500× growth in POS transactions** from 2009 to 2025 - Growth has been **wide, not deep** — driven by new users rather than increased spending - Average transaction size remained relatively stable, indicating **strong penetration into micro-business segments** - The 2023 cash shortage acted as a **behavioral forcing event**, accelerating digital adoption - **Infrastructure density (agent networks)** is the strongest predictor of sustained usage --- ## 🧠 Core Thesis > Nigeria has largely solved for access. > The next frontier is **depth** — converting millions of agent-reached users into fully active financial participants. --- ## 🏗️ Project Structure ### 1. Transaction Landscape - Time series analysis of POS transaction volume and value - Identification of three growth phases: - Policy-driven (2012–2020) - Infrastructure-driven (2021) - Crisis-driven (2023) ### 2. Merchant Behavior Model A simple framework for understanding adoption: - **Stage 1:** Cash-dominant - **Stage 2:** Transitional - **Stage 3:** Digital-first ### 3. Financial Inclusion Context - Gap between access and active usage - Role of income patterns and account ownership --- ## 📈 Sample Visualizations --- ## 🛠️ Tools …