musanofisat/nigeria-aqi-forecasting

An end-to-end time-series forecasting project addressing an environmental-health problem # Nigeria AQI Forecasting ## 12-Month Air Quality Index Forecast Using SARIMA An end-to-end data science project that analyzes historical air-quality data from Nigerian cities and forecasts monthly Air Quality Index (AQI) for 2026. --- ## Project Overview Air-quality monitoring often focuses on describing current or historical pollution levels. This project moves from **descriptive analytics to predictive analytics** by using historical monthly AQI patterns to forecast future air-quality conditions. The project uses data covering **2014–2025**, performs exploratory data analysis and time-series diagnostics, builds a seasonal SARIMA model, evaluates it on an unseen 2025 test period, and produces a 12-month AQI forecast for 2026. ### Research Question **Can historical monthly AQI patterns be used to forecast Nigeria's air quality for the next 12 months?** --- ## Objectives - Understand the distribution and trends of AQI in the dataset. - Identify monthly/annual seasonal patterns. - Compare AQI levels across Nigerian cities. - Investigate relationships between AQI and major pollutants. - Build and validate a seasonal time-series forecasting model. - Forecast monthly AQI for January–December 2026. - Identify limitations and opportunities for future improvement. --- ## Dataset The analysis dataset contains: - **10,368 observations** - **72 cities** - **37 states** - **2014–2025** - Monthly air-quality observations - AQI plus multiple pollutant measurements Key pollutant variables include PM2.5, PM10, NO, NO2, NOx, NH3, CO, SO2, O3, Benzene, Toluene and Xylene. ### Data availability The raw CSV is **included in this repository**. ```text nigeria_air_quality_2014_2025.csv ``` --- ## Methodology ```text Raw Data ↓ Data Cleaning & Validation ↓ Exploratory Data Analysis ↓ Monthly Time-Series Construction ↓ Seasonal Decomposition ↓ Stationarity Testing ↓ ACF/PACF Analysis ↓ Chronological Train/Test Split ↓ SARIMA Modelling ↓ 2025 Holdout Validation ↓ Res …