Nakamoto-ctrl/ghana-yps-analysis

Asomdwee AI/ML Framework for Ghana's YPS National Action Plan # 🕊️ Before the Fire ## Ghana YPS — Youth, Peace & Security Policy Analysis *A Data-Driven Submission to Ghana's National Action Plan on Youth, Peace and Security* ) **Authors:** Micah Nkrumah Ardayfio (Age 20) · Mohamed Alpha (Age 28) **Submitted to:** National YPS Technical Working Group, National Youth Authority Ghana **Contact:** yps@nya.gov.gh · April 2026 --- ## Overview This repository contains the full analytical pipeline behind the **Asomdwee Predictive Network** — a spatio-temporal EDA/PDA framework identifying *where* youth conflict is most likely in Ghana, *when* it will peak, and *what to do* before violence begins. Using **ACLED conflict data (2018–2026)** and a **Random Forest ensemble (AUC = 0.886)**, the framework identifies the **Harmattan–Ballot Nexus**: a compound risk window recurring on a four-year electoral cycle during which youth conflict probability rises **4.1× above baseline**. --- ## Key Findings | Finding | Result | |---------|--------| | Model performance | ROC-AUC = 0.886 · PR-AUC = 0.891 · 5-fold CV AUC = 0.925 ± 0.109 | | Conflict driver | Electoral-cycle amplification — surges in every election year (2016, 2020, 2024) | | Highest-risk regions | Savannah (YVI 8.7) · N. Ghana (8.2) · Upper East (7.8) · Greater Accra (7.1) | | Best resilience model | Upper West & Volta — only regions where Resilience > Vulnerability | | Forecast horizon | 12-month outlook Apr 2026–Mar 2027 · **Next Nexus peak: Q4 2028** | | Top predictors | Lag-1 conflict count · 3-month rolling mean · Electoral window · UNHCR incidents | --- ## Three NAP Pillars > The analysis translates directly into three evidence-based policy pillars: **🛡️ Pillar I — Prevention** Youth-Led Early Warning Committees in border districts + Peace Ambassadors with a direct digital link to the National Peace Council. Economic Transition Support Zones releasing livelihood grants within 14 days of Galamsey enforcement actions. **🗳️ Pillar II — Participation** Mandatory …