# 📊 Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting
> 🚀 **Predicting Ethiopia's digital financial transformation with time series analysis**
Built for **Selam Analytics** in partnership with development finance institutions and the National Bank of Ethiopia to forecast Ethiopia's progress on financial inclusion using World Bank Global Findex methodology.
## 🎯 Project Overview
Ethiopia is undergoing a rapid digital financial revolution:
- 📱 **Telebirr**: 54M+ users since 2021 launch
- 💰 **M-Pesa**: 10M+ users since 2023 entry
- 🏦 **Interoperable P2P**: Now surpasses ATM withdrawals
- 📊 **The Challenge**: Only 49% account ownership in 2024 (+3pp from 2021)
**Our mission**: Understand what drives financial inclusion and predict Ethiopia's progress through 2027.
## 📈 What We Forecast
### Access Indicators 🏦
- **Account Ownership Rate** - Adults with financial accounts
- **Gender Gap Analysis** - Male vs female inclusion
- **Regional Coverage** - Urban vs rural access
### Usage Indicators 💳
- **Digital Payment Adoption** - Mobile money, cards, online payments
- **Mobile Money Penetration** - Active vs registered accounts
- **Payment Use Cases** - P2P, merchant, bill pay, wages
## 🏗️ Project Structure
```
ethiopia-financial-inclusion-forecast/
├── 📁 data/ # Datasets & sources
│ ├── raw/ # Original data (never modify)
│ └── processed/ # Analysis-ready data
├── 📓 notebooks/ # Jupyter analysis
├── 🔧 src/ # Python modules
├── 🧪 tests/ # Test suites
├── 📊 reports/ # Analysis reports
├── 📱 dashboard/ # Interactive dashboard
├── 🤖 models/ # Trained models
└── 📚 docs/ # Documentation
```
## 🚀 Quick Start
### Prerequisites 📋
- Python 3.9+
- pandas, numpy, matplotlib, seaborn
- plotly, dash, scikit-learn
### Installation ⚡
```bash
# Clone the repo
git clone "github_repo_name"
# Setup environment
pytho …