Nebiyou-x/ethiopia-fi-forecast

Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia # Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System (2025–2027) ## 📌 Project Overview This repository contains the end-to-end forecasting system developed for **Selam Analytics**. The project supports a consortium including the **National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE)**, **Mobile Money Operators (MMOs)**, and **Development Finance Institutions (DFIs)** to track and predict the trajectory of financial inclusion in Ethiopia. ### The Business Case Ethiopia is currently navigating a radical digital financial transformation. While infrastructure and mobile money usage (Telebirr/M-Pesa) are growing exponentially, the 2024 Global Findex indicates that account ownership is lagging behind national targets. This system provides data-driven forecasts to help stakeholders decide on policy interventions and infrastructure investments for the 2025–2027 period. --- ### Solution Overview This project builds a forecasting system that: - Integrates financial inclusion data from multiple sources - Models the impact of major financial sector events - Uses time-series forecasting to predict future trends - Provides an interactive dashboard for scenario analysis - The system transforms static data into forward-looking insights for strategic decision-making Result Visualization Chart ## 🏗️ Technical Methodology ### 1. Unified Data Schema To handle the sparse nature of financial inclusion data, we implemented a unified relational schema: * **Observations:** Verified historical data points (e.g., Findex surveys). * **Events:** Qualitative milestones (e.g., M-Pesa launch, Digital ID rollout). * **Impact Links:** Defined relationships and estimated weights between events and indicators. * **Targets:** Official goals from the National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS-II). ### 2. Data Enrichment The primary dataset was enriched with high-frequency proxy indicators to bridge the gaps between major surveys: * **Infrastructure:** 4G/5G population coverage and mobile penetration rates. * ** …